Assessing Community Risk Perception and Knowledge of Early Warning System During Flood

Abstract

This study assesses community risk perception, knowledge, and the effectiveness of early warning systems (EWS) during floods in Gasma, a rural community in Karasuwa LGA, Yobe State, Nigeria. Despite technological advancements in flood forecasting, a persistent disconnect between warning generation and community action leads to avoidable casualties. Using a stratified random sampling approach, data were collected from 200 riverine respondents via surveys, interviews, and structured questionnaires. Descriptive statistics were employed for analysis. Results reveal that while 48% perceive moderate flood risk, 35% view it as high or very high. Although 75% claim to understand EWS terms, 20% understand very little or not at all. National government agencies (48%) and local leaders (23%) are the most trusted information sources. Critically, direct observation of rising water (38%) outweighs official warnings (28%) in evacuation decisions. Key barriers to acting on warnings include fear of looting (33%), lack of safe evacuation sites (25%), and past warning inaccuracies (23%). The study concludes that advanced forecasting alone is insufficient; a reactive institutional culture and reliance on personal verification undermine EWS effectiveness. Bridging the warning-action gap requires community engagement, trust-building, precise impact-based messaging, and co-creation of actionable plans to transform passive recipients into active, prepared participants.